3rd day in a row
The USDJPY has been using the 100 day MA (and now the 200 hour MA - green line in the chart below at 111.695), as a floor. Over the last 3 trading days, the price has tested that key MA and bounced with varying degrees of bounce. The most recent bounces (yesterday and again today) have been modest. Today's range is about 50 pips from the low to the corrective high. The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart at 112.06 currently) is not really doing much technically. The price has been trading above and below the MA level as traders try to decide the next move.
Any clues from the 5-minute chart (see chart below)?
HMMMM. Lots of chop with the price moving above and below intraday MAs (and the 100 hour MA too at 112.06). What is a touch more bearish is what did not happen on the last move higher.
- The price moved above the close from yesterday at 112.154. That level was a floor that turned to a ceiling yesterday. That ceiling level held in the London morning session. A move above it should have led to more upside. It failed.
- It also made a new high for the day and failed.
- The move to the high extended briefly above the 38.2% at 112.179 too. That failed too
Are the buyers pushing hard? Not really. They gave up pretty quickly.
Now it just may be pre-holiday trading. The range is narrow because no one is interested.
You can argue that the other side of the coin shows buyer at the 100 day MA (and 200 hour MA). The price is also on the north side of the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5-minute at 111.97-99. We are also above the natural 112.00 level.
I guess there is a battle going on.
If the price can get more interest above the 112.18 area (38.2% and above the close from yesterday) it would be better for the buyers.
For the bears, get below the 100 and 200 bar MAs at 111.97-99 first but the key is the 100 day MA at 111.768 and 200 hour MA at 111.69.
In related markets:
- US yield are unchanged (2 year and 5 year) to up 1.5 bp in 10 year and up 2.2 bp in the 30 year.
- US stocks are opening with upside gains with the S&P up 0.39% and Nasdaq up 0.38%.
- Yields up a little and stocks up a little should be a little supportive (bullish).
Chicago PMI and Michigan consumer sentiment up next.