....So it seems
The USDJPY has been toying with a break of the 100 day MA (currently at 113.06).
Yesterday, the price fell below the MA line a few times but closed above the line. The price has not had a close below the 100 day MA since October 7th, 2016.
Today, the price is below and looking more bearish. We are trading below the low from yesterday (at 112.88) The low reached 112.735 so far. The next target on the downside comes in at 112.50 (swing lows from Jan). The lows from February come in at 111.68 and 111.58. The 38.2% of the move up from the September 22 low comes in at 111.56.
Drilling down to the 5 minute chart below, you can see the "seriousness' of the break below the 100 day MA. The prior three peaks below the MA line were met with buying. This last one, we are seeing more momentum.
Now what?
Well sellers more in control. The close risk for traders now will be the 111.96 (say up to 112.00). That is the 50% of the last move lower (below the 100 day MA) and also was a low from yesterday). Honestly, shorts would be most thrilled if the 112.90 area held now. That would say to me that sellers are more anxious.
Disclaimer...It is Friday. Pre-Weekend "clean-up" of positions can whip the price around, but the selling seems more committed.....