Less than 24 hours to BOC rate decision
The USDCAD has just pushed above its 100 hour MA at 1.29298. The pair tried on three occasions last week to breach the MA line. Each failed before getting close to the next targets On July 5th, that target was 1.30135. On July 6th, the break really went no where. On July 7th the 1.30135 and the 200 hour MAs were not closely tested on the breaks. The failures turned back negative.
Now with the break above, the 200 hour MA at 1.2954 and the a topside trend line at 1.2958 will be the next targets to get to and through. I would expect some sellers against the area on a first test by traders.
The BOC will announce their interest rate decision at 10 AM ET/1400 GMT tomorrow with expectations for a 25 rise in rates. Adam has a post about the decision here. If the BOC hikes and hints of a couple more to come in 2017, that should reverse this rally (the market has priced more of a chance for more hikes). On the other hand, a one and done for now statement could send the pair higher after the decision is released. The pair has been trending lower.
On the daily chart, a move above the 1.29689 and then 1.3000 to 1.30176 would be more bullish.
So the uncertainty today should keep traders from wandering too far before the decision. As a result, look for traders to sell against the 200 hour MA with stops above the trend line.