No closes above the MA line since March 15th, 2016
Oil above $50? Who cares.
The USDCAD is ignoring the move above $50 per barrel in the price of crude oil futures and instead has broken above the 200 day MA at 1.32118. If the USDCAD goes higher, the CAD is weaker. That runs contrary to the normal price reaction to higher oil . The Canada economy is reliant on a robust oil industry and should benefit from higher prices.
Technically, the price of the USDCAD has not closed above the 200 day moving average since March 15, 2016. Today, the high price has reached 1.3248. That lines up with some recent highs. The high prices in September peaked at 1.3247 (on September 16) and 1.32799 (on September 27). The high swing price going back to July 27 reached 1.32515. The high today lines up with the September 16th and July 27th highs. Traders leaned it seemed (see blue circles in the chart above).
The current price is back down and is looking to retest that 200 day MA line. Key test.
Looking at the hourly chart, the USDCAD has had it's chances at life above the 200 day MA going back to Sept 26th. There have been 4 other breaks above the MA line and four failures. This is the 5th. The price just retested the line and bounced so traders are leaning against the line, and trying to keep the buyers in control. However, be aware that a failure could lead to a move back down. It will also be easily explained if the oil prices remain elevated.
