Stays in the 100 or so pip range
Looking at the USDCAD technically,
- The high extended above the high from Thursday and Monday at 1.34166 and 1.3422 respectively. That should have been more bullish. The price went to 1.3433 and then FAILED - moving back below the 1.3416-22 area.
- The price fell below the upward trend line
- The price fell below the high from Friday, swing low from earlier today (green circles) at the 1.3492.
All that has increased the bearish look today.
Having said that, the price is approaching a support area that has a number of swing hourly bars (follow red circles). That area comes at the 1.3354-58 area.
That area is holding so far.
Overall, the price action over the last 4 days is roughly in a 100 pip trading range (1.3317 and 1.3422). The consolidation has allowed the 100 hour MA to catch up to the price. That comes in at 1.33425. If we are to go lower, that rising moving average needs to be broken.
For a look at the price action on the 5- minute chart today, the move down from the high stepped from level to level.
1. The 1.3422 level held resistance
2. The 200 bar MA was broken (bearish), then tested and the price fell lower.
3. The 1.3292-94 war tested and broken
4. We are stalling at the support area defined by 1.3354-58.
As the price goes lower, and there is some momentum but it is not racing, a level (or levels - including the 100 hour MA) can stall the fall. Sellers are in control, but there is work to do. The 1.33877 and then 1.3392-94 should stall a rally. A move above, and the waters are more muddy.