Today stayed below 100 hour MA. Looks toward the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.
The housing data out of Canada was favorable and better than expectations. That is keeping the USDCAD at the lows for the day, but we are testing a key level that may stall the fall (at least a bit).
Earlier in late Asian session, the pair tried to extend toward the 100 hour MA (and a prior swing level on the hourly chart above), but that move was met with sellers (bearish). The subsequent move lower now takes the pair closer to the rising 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.27164 AND swing levels (see red circled numbers) in the 1.27134-218 area. Key area and the combination may give sellers cause for pause.
Now a move below that MA line and area (yellow area) would be move bearish. The low for the week at 1.2702 and then, the 50% retracement of the move up from the October 12th low at 1.2674 would be the next key targets on the downside.
Hold... and a move back above the 38.2% at 1.27312 would be a clue the buyers are taking more control. The falling 100 hour MA remains as the ceiling.
Drilling to the 5-minute chart below the pair is also near a lower trend line currently. Hold and a closer resistance target on a correction would look toward the 100 bar MA/38.2% retracement/last swing high level in the 1.2748-52 area. I would expect sellers to lean here intraday with a move above turning the tide back more to the upside.
