The 100 hour MA is broken but....
The 100 hour MA was broken for a few minutes at 1.2536 (it is at 1.2534 now). The high reached 1.2543. Buyers were right in trying. The price has not traded above its 100 hour MA since July 12th. The problem is, the price needed to stay above that MA line. It did not.
The buyers turned to sellers and we are now seeing new session lows. The bears don't bite on the failed break.
The range for the day is still well below the 22 day average (49 pips vs 87 pip average). There is room to roam. The low yesterday reached 1.24806. The low on Monday reached 1.2483. A lower trend line comes in 1.2462 and 1.2421.
Of course, there is FOMC risk. Will it mess with the USDCAD? The risk level remains the topside trend line and 100 hour MA.
Also, the price of crude oil is helping to keep the CAD supported (USDCAD lower). Crude is up $0.79 or 1.63% at $48.68. The high for the day reached $48.87. Inventory data showed a draw down of -7208K vs -3000K estimate. Although the number was less than the private sector draw down of over -10,000K, the relative large draw is still helping to keep the USDCAD under pressure.