Falling below support target
Typically, the 200 bar MA and 50% retracement when they are together provide a formidable target that gives traders a cause for pause.
Looking at the 4-hour chart of the USDCHF, the 200 bar MA at 0.9820 and the 50% of the move up from the September 28th low at 0.98185 has just been broken with the price trading down to 0.98122 (so far).
Is it a small overshoot OR is it an indication of trend traders continuing to trend the pair lower? A move back above the 0.9820 might be indicative of a brief overshoot, but we need it soon (otherwise the trend continues). Even if we do get a corrective rebound, traders will continue to eye that combination level for clues going forward. It is key.
Right now, the sellers are in more control still. If those sellers want to explore the downside further, the next key targets come at the 200 and 100 day MAs at 0.9780 and 0.9769 respectively (green and blue lines). That, like the 50% and 200 bar MA, should stall the fall and attract some profit taking/buying (with stops on a break).
NOTE: Ryan just posted on the EURCHF (and USDCHF) with other thoughts from his perspective. He too points out the daily MAs as a key support area for the pair. His comments on the EURCHF are also worth a read too as that pair is also approaching some key support targets.