Holds below the 100 hour MA
The trend line outlined in the earlier post gave way, and then rallied back above the broken line. Not another failed break? Nope... The move back above the broken trend line found sellers against the 100 hour MA line at 104.87 and the selling was back on - including a more aggressive break below the trend line.
The price is now approaching the next target against the 200 hour MA (green line at 104.48). This should solicit buying/profit taking and perhaps we are seeing a bit of that now. However be aware - the market seems a bit concerned about the US election today. More emails and promises of even more revelations between now and election day, seems to have traders feeling a bit nervous about the USD (EURUSD, USDCHF trading at extremes). Watch the 104.65 level on the topside. Stay below and a run at the 200 hour MA may still be in the cards for traders today.
Having said that, the case for putting a toe in the water is that risk can be defined and limited AND pairs like the EURUSD and the USDCHF are approaching key technical levels as well. The EURUSD has resistance in the 1.1047-61 area. The USDCHF is approaching support at 200 day MA at 0.97802 level. The combination may save the dollar from further selling and attract buyers. However, I expect those buyers might be on a short leash if the levels are broken. They may quickly get out and keep the dollar trend moving lower. Other targets come in at 104.34 and then the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 104.148.