Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD trades below 100 hour MA/new lows

The 1.2406 is the 50% retracement. Look for support buyers with a tight stop.

The GBPUSD is trading at new day session lows and in the process is moving below the 100 hour MA at 1.24195. The 50% retracement of the move up from Friday's low comes in at 1.24065. That is the next target for the pair. The range today is near 100 pips now. It is one of the more active pairs in trading.

Yesterday, the pair moved sharply higher and in the process moved through the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above). The highs (yesterday and today) ran into the swing highs in the 1.2501 to 1.1213 area. When that high area stalled the rally once again today, AND the price fell below the 200 hour MA, the buyers from yesterday, turned into sellers today (against the 200 hour MA - see chart above).

The fall has now retraced into the next support area defined by the 50% retracement at 1.24065, the 100 by moving onin the 4-hour chart at 1.2408 and the 100 hour moving average of 1.24195. Buyers should lean in this area (perhaps some profit taking). What will they want to see? A move back above the 100 hour MA at 1.24195.

When the price moved up and then down, there are often levels that were broken on the way up, that have to be re-broken on the way down. We have seen that pattern in trading today. Some of those levels are early (or earliier in the process, others are later. Some from a cluster of technical levels that should be harder to break (especially after the move has been extended). We are at one of those levels RIGHT NOW. Will the 1.2406 area hold the fall? And if so, will a correction take the price back above the level above (1.24195). Look for the buyers (with stops below 1.2400) and then see what happens.

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