Technically, the rally stalled where it should have stalled.
The GBPUSD did the right thing. In a choppy European morning session, the price did squeeze up to the key resistance area at the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour (at 1.2393) and the key 100 day MA at 1.2405. The high reached 1.23978 between those two technical levels and sellers/profit takers came in. The pair was helped by the "people familiar" with the EU comments, but that happens. Would the GBPUSD have backed off without the comments? We don't know, but the fact is risk could be defined and limited against those target levels. Traders sold and price came down.
The swing low same down toward the 50% of the move down from the Feb 24th high at 1.2338. The low reached 1.2334. We trade at 1.2360 now. That is also where the market settled yesterday. It is also the 50% of the day's trading range. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5-minute chart are at 1.23575 and 1.2363 (blue and green lines in the chart below). I guess you can say we are standing on the borderline, looking for a push one way or the other.
It is Friday. We have confidence numbers and the stock market quadruple witching to deal with. PS it is St. Pats day too. I feel like I was dealt a pair of 8s which is not so bad but you have been called and raised. HMMMM. Do I want to get in a knife fight (figuratively at the poker table) or exit gracefully (fold)?
If NOT short from against the 100 day MA or long from the 1.2338 area, it might be best to perhaps wait for the next hands to be dealt (i.e. look for some more information).
If you have a bearish bias but don't want risk up to the 100 day MA, the high from yesterday might be a closer risk level at 1.2376. Stay below is more bearish.
If you like the buy side, the 1.2338 remains the level to lean against and stay above to keep the bullish bias in tact.
It is Friday. Friday's can be quirky. The market did what it was supposed to do a strong resistance area and held on the support level. If you have to trade, pick your spot. Define your risk. It might be like playing a hand with a pair of 8s, but you know you have the 8s and you can control your bet (your risk). You can also fold and see if a better hand lies ahead (today or even next week).