The high last week was a good one...
The EURUSD last week stalled at 1.1879. Recall that the swing low from June 2010 came in at 1.1876 (see weekly chart below). That level was not broken until Jan 2015. Traders tend to remember key swing levels. That is one level to remember going forward.
Stalling at that level was an invitation to sell both on Thursday and Friday last week (and traders did). The 4-hour chart below shows the sellers against the level. Also providing resistance was the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.
The fall lower has also moved below the 1.1822-32 area. Looking at the 4-hour chart above, that area is home to a number of swing levels (see yellow area and red circles). Traders pay attention to those areas as well. Today the high could only reach 1.18189. So there is some resistance on a rally toward that level.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the low today stalled near the 200 hour MA. There was a dip below the level on one hourly bar, but that dip was short lived. There are three other hourly bars today that showed buyers leaning against the level.
I would expect that if that MA line can be broken, given the tests and holds, there should be stops triggered and a new leg lower. Be aware.
In the meantime, just above that level is the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.17939. That too has been a NY support level. Keep an eye on it. If it can hold, the buyers might look to make another run higher.
Technically, there are lots of levels in play (both above and below). The price action has been down and up today. The price is lower from Friday. I guess there is a little negative bias but it would be better (more bearish) if the 1.17939 and 1.1784 levels (MA lines) could be broken. If not, the pair can easily base and move back higher too.
