Empire manufacturing weaker than expected
The EURUSD got a little nudge higher after the weaker than expected Empire Mfg. data (-9.02 vs 6.5 estimate). The pair has been in a narrow trading range (now up to 33 pips for the day. The 22 day average is 81 pips). So it is not too hard to extend. The weaker data is in contrast to the better string of data that we had on Friday with retail sales and Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment doing much better than expectations. So with a narrow trading range and some weaker US data, the pair has room to roam. The day's bias is more positive/corrective.
Technically, the pair's high last week stalled very near the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) on Wednesday. The pair marched lower moving below MAs (100 hour MA, 100 and 200 bar MA on 4 hour chart) and a support trend line dating back to April 26th and 27th lows. The 38.2% of the move down from the Wednesday high comes in at 1.13447 and this will be the next upside target. A move above that level will look toward the low from last week at 1.13583 and the 50% at 1.1364. I would expect strong/patient sellers between 1.1358-64 on tests.
PS GBPUSD is also extending to new highs