What levels are in play...
The November FOMC rate decision is due at 2 PM ET/1800 GMT with not change expected by the Fed. There may be some changes in the statement to pat the Fed on the back for the better GDP (even if it was a rebound and helped by a quirking soybean export surge). What will be watched is the change in the vote. Last month there were 3 members who wanted to tighten. Will that number increase without going over the tighten mode. I would think that the Fed would want a near unanimous vote if they were to tighten. It would not look good with a 6-4 vote (what happens at 5-5?). Last meeting the vote was 7-3 (Mester, George and Rosengren voted to tighten).
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The EURUSD has moved higher in trading today and in the process has taken out the next resistance target at the 1.1108 level (50% of the move down from the August high).
Earlier today, the price moved above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the 1.10826 level. The price also moved above a flatter channel trend line yesterday and started to create a newer/steeper channel (see chart above). That line comes in at 1.1094. The lower trend line comes in at 1.1072. Below that the 1.1047 level is the old 38.2% of the move down from the August high and the 1.10385 is the spike high from Draghi's testimony on October 20th. .
All those levels, would be in play - and the steps lower - on a more hawkish Fed (which is probably the more likely outcome).
What about the topside in the event the Fed is not so forthcoming about tightening expectations? (or if the dollar selling continues on election jitters, Brexit stuff, employment fears, etc).
Looking at the daily chart below, the 100 day MA comes in at 1.1134. The price has not traded above the 100 day MA since October 10th. Above that level will next target the topside channel trend line on the hourly chart at 1.1158 followed by the 200 day MA at 1.11763 today.
Above those MAs, there are trend lines at 1.1207 and 1.1244.
It is hard to see a more dovish Fed. They seem to want to save face with at least one tightening in 2016. This is just not the right time to do it. However, how much can they really say with a toss up election ahead and a couple more employment reports ahead.
The good news is that GDP was higher, consumer continues to buy (albeit a more modest pace), employment is not falling out of bed. Inflation? PCE core is at 1.7% which is up from about 1.4% a year ago. So making progress - and that will be used barring an election crash - for the December tightening. However, it is just not a lot of progress.