US weakness on the back of healthcare failure sends the pair marching higher.
The EURUSD has closed on Friday and again on Monday above the 1.1435-65 key area. That was bullish and the longs were benefited from a failure in Washington to come to vote on their 2nd attempt of repeal and replace Obamacare. Risk was defined and limited. The news gave the longs the needed unexpected push in the Asian session. The price is moving away from the aforementioned "old ceiling" at 1.1435-65. On the daily chart below, the next target comes in at the 2016 high at 1.16156
Is there a closer target?
Drilling to the hourly chart, the price rise has marched higher with the pair ultimately stalling at a topside trend line resistance line at 1.1562. The high price has reached 1.15636. Sellers are taking a breather after the 93 pip range (above the 68 pip average over the last month of trading).
The consolidation has corrected about 38.2% of the last leg up (see 5 minute chart). The 38.2% comes in at 1.15435. That is congruent with a trend move higher steps higher with shallow corrections. The 50% of the last leg higher comes in at 1.1537. That level also corresponds with the initial high for the day on the first spike higher. A move below that level is risk for longs looking for more upside today.
UPDATE: We have just moved back up to test the topside trend line on the hourly chart and are pushing the level at 1.1365. A move above with momentum will have traders looking to extend toward the 1.1615 level. Expect natural resistance on a test of the 1.1600 level in between. Sellers/profit takers are putting up a fight at the topside trend line. Be aware.