Extending the range
When NY traders entered for the day, the EURUSD had a 33 pip trading range. That ain't a lot. The better ADP has the pair focusing on the the dollar/Fed/stronger employment on Friday and so the range has now been extended to 50 or so pips. To give you an idea, the average is about 95 pips over the last 22 days.
The pair is trading at 1.0755 currently. There is >2B options rolling off at 1.0750 apparently and that may stall the fall. Watch that level. The options expire at 10 AM ET.
Looking at the chart above, at the highs yesterday and again today, the 100 day MA stalled the rally. Yes there were little peeks above the line (at 1.08038 today) but they were quickly rejected.
The fall from the high is now back below the highs from last week between 1.07645 and 1.0774. There were 5 separate moves into that area last week, and each time the market failed. Yesterday and today that area was breached and support held against it UNTIL the break on the better ADP. That is now intraday resistance/risk now.
On a move back down, the 1.07383 is the 38.2% of the move up. The level is also near the high from Friday. That is the next target on a break of the 1.0750 level. Then, like the USDJPY, the market will have to contend with the 50% and the 200 and 100 hour MAs at the 1.0724, 1.07187 and 1.07156 levels.
Sellers against the 100 day MA prevailed. Remember, that was also in an area where there has been a lot of swing levels AND the 50% of the move down from the November high (see daily chart below). We went to the upside abyss (if that makes sense) but could not break through.
That stuff above from the daily, and the fall below the yellow area from the hourly chart, has the technical picture looking a bit more top-ish again.
