Back below where it started
The EURUSD right before the data was trading at 1.1258. It is trading currently belwo that level.
The headlines (with retail sales like the driver) sent the price higher at first. The Initial claims and Philly Fed index were stronger than expected. PPI showed better than expected pipeline costs when you look at food, energy and trade.
Technically, what can I say for this pair?
1. At the lows today, (the gains from yesterday just started to erode in the London session), the price held support at the 100 bar MA on the 4 hour chart at 1.1218. The 100 day MA and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart were not far behind that area at 1.1206-09 area.
2. After basing at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart, the price held support at the 100 hour MA at the 1.1233 level over the last 3 hours of trading. So traders ratcheted up support.
3. The spike higher extended the range for the week. It is now up up to 79 pips. That is still well below the lows for 2016 and 2015 of about 125 pips. No bump up in September so far. There is room to roam for the trading range this week.
Is the slew of data Fed mind changing? It the consumer is 2/3 of GDP, not a good number. The GDP estimates should be lowered I would think.
Technically, the price spike has left a big tail in the current hourly bar. Not so hot but there was a lot of data and so the liquidity conditions were limited at 8:30 AM ET. If you ignore that, I will look for patient traders to lean against the 100 hour MA at 1.12337 level. You can also say an old trend line slashes through that area too. So, if a "bounce off the low" is the way to go, that would be level to lean. If it goes below, all bets are off - or at least the waters are muddy for me. At some point the pair will decide the direction and go. We should not/can't just stay in a narrow 78 pips trading range for ever. A decision will be made. So find your lean levels and look for the breaks with momentum. All traders are in the same up and down boat. Calmer waters will prevail at some point. We want to see if we can stay in the boat and ride those calm (trending) waters.