Dollar stronger
The EURUSD has taken a further fall back toward the hourly MA levels after the better than expected ADP report. The attempt to move to the highest level since the US election night does not come to fruition and the market moves back toward the heart of the recent up and down trading range.
The pair is approaching the 200 hour MA at around the 1.1200 level. The 100 hour MA at 1.11868 and the 50% of the move up this week at 1.1182 are other downside targets. The 200 hour MA is holding on the first look. With the 100 hour MA and the 50% fairly close together, if there is a break of the 1.1200, I would expect traders to slow the fall near those levels too (with stops again below). The sellers are taking back more control, but there is a lot of congestion on the way that give traders something to lean against to define and limit risk.
A more important downside barometer going forward for me is the 1.11.609-1.1171 area. There has been a number of swing levels in that region. On Tuesday, the price moved below but could not make much of the break. The area became support again in yesterday's trading (see red circle 9). It might take a stronger employment number tomorrow to get through that level.
Resistance above is now at 1.12335 (swing high from May 26th). A move above will have shorts, and the market changing their tune a bit.
Back to the meat of the trading range after the better data. The MA lines (starting with the 200 hour MA - green line) have traders leaning on the dip on the first look.