Back below 100 hour MA
The EURUSD moved higher in London trading. On the move , the pair moved back above the 1.1200 level, and then the 100 hour MA and trend line at 1.1217, but stalled at the 50% retracement level of the move down from last week's highs (at 1.1225). The pair has chopped its way lower since the peak, but holds the 1.1200 level on the downside (the low print on my chart is 1.1200). Sounds like options may be in play.
The low to high trading range is only 40 pips. The average is 73 pips. There is room to roam on a break of support (and/or that 50% level above).
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 100 and 200 bar MAs and the 61.8% of the day's range stalled the fall (along with the 1.1200 level) at the corrective low in the London session. The pair is just moving below the 100 bar MA and 50% midpoint of the day at 1.1205 area, but a move below the 1.1200 level gets below those MAs, the 50% the 61.8% and the natural support level. That is the key support in trading today and the level that should solicit more of a decline in the pair on a break.
Spreading out the hourly chart below , the yellow area at the 1.11609 to 1.1171 is home to a number of swing levels (just follow the red circles in the chart below). There was a move below at the end of May but that tumble was reversed and the level has been successfully tested on two occasions since that failed break (red circle 7 and 8). ON the topside the pair has a couple of recent stalls against the 200 hour MA (green line). Those extremes help define a wider trading range for the pair as it goes up and down since May 18 or so...
