High reached 130.76. 200 week MA at 130.66.
The EURJPY has reached a key technical level at the 200 week MA (see post from yesterday on this currency pair and level).
The 200 week MA on my chart comes in at 130.66. I checked Bloomberg and they have it at 130.72. The high price for the EURJPY just extended to 130.758. The price is back down to 130.53 currently. Profit takers. Sellers with limited risk. The combination is giving the pair - and the bulls - some cause for pause.
Drilling from the weekly chart all the way to the 5-minute chart shows the pair's fall from the 200 week MA area.
The fall (helped by Trump Jr perhaps) sent the price down to the 100 bar MA at 130.35 area (blue line on the chart below). The price has rebounded between that MA and the weekly moving average above. Traders on each side are having a battle. Who will take more control?
What does the hourly chart say?
It still has the buyers more in control. The price is above a lower trend line at 130.32 currently. The 100 hour MA is still much lower at 129.572 Last week, the pair tried to push below the 100 hour MA line (blue line in the chart below), but could not sustain the selling. The move back above started the current surge higher (look at move back above blue line on July 6th) .
Going forward, if this pair is going to peak at the 200 week MA and correct the surge, the sellers will need to prove they can break some of these fundamental support levels below (and stay broken). Otherwise, the bulls are still in charge. That includes the trend line on the hourly and then the rising 100 hour MA (blue line at 129.57 and moving higher).
For the time being, the pair may have reached a target that is too good to ignore by profit takers and sellers looking to pick the top after the 3 month surge higher. It is hard to ignore that carrot but a move above and all bearish/"top is in place for now" bets are off.
