Cross currencies are moving now
The US market is open, markets are thin as Easter Monday and Passover wind down.
We have seen the Empire manufacturing index dip to 5.2 from 16.4 last month (and 15.0 estimate). Going back to Friday, the Retail sales and CPI were certainly not anything to shout about either.
Yields have been on the "economy is weaker" track with the 10 year down about 40 bps from the 2.63% peak in the last month. The next target is 2.12% (38.2% of the move up from the July 2016 low) and the 200 day MA at 2.0406%. There are other things going on including the geopolitical sphere and the politics (with Trump leading that category). Overall, the story seems to be more dollar down. The June hike estimate is hovering around 50%. That is down quite a bit from north of 70% not too long ago.
So what about trading today? The US markets are all open. No holiday here, but with Europe closed and a holiday "hangover", it can make for "swingy" markets.
What I see post the Empire data is moves in the JPY pairs. The EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, CADJPY have all moved to new session day highs. The USDJPY is not making new highs though but has moved back toward unchanged on the day. So it seems to be dragged higher by the crosses (or so it seems), and not the "dollar down" idea
The EURGBP - another favorite cross - is also moving higher as it moved sharply down and up.
So crosses are on the run and may wag the dog in the holiday-like trading today.
Some technicals for some of the crosses:
EURGBP.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair has moved up toward the 100 hour MA at 0.8487 on two separate occasions. Traders just took it to that MA
EURJPY
The EURJPY has made a break above trend line resistance at 115.33 currently. The 100 hour MA at 115.898 will be eyed as a key technical level above now. SInce March 29th, there have only been 2 hourly bars above the 100 hour MA. Being above the trend line gives the buyers some reasons to make another test of that key MA line now.
GBPJPY
The GBPJPY is also making new session highs. It has had an up and down and up again day. The low traded at the lowest level since mid November 2016.
Looking at the hourly chart, the rebound - like the EURJPY - has taken the price above a trend line at 136.12. THe 100 hour MA at 136.53 is above and the next target. A week ago, the pair moved above the 100 hour MA (blue line - see shaded red area in the chart above) but could not sustain momentum.