Employment change expected at 10.0K
The Australian unemployment report will be released in the new trading day (9:30 PM ET/0130 GMT) with expectations of 10.0 K change in employment jobs (was 17.9K last month) and a unemployment rate of 5.8% vs 5.7% last month. The full time jobs last month came in unchanged while part time jobs increased by the full 17.9 K). The Participation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 64.8%. The 3 month average for jobs has been 14.5K. While the 12 month average is 18.7K. The expected of 10K is slightly less than the recent trends.
What technical levels are in play?
Looking longer term first, the weekly chart shows that in 2016, the price has corrected higher from the move down during 2014 and 2015. Although the most recent low was made in 2016, that occurred in the 3rd week of the year (on January 24th). The rally from that low took the price up toward the 38.2% of the move down from the 2014 high (that occurred in April). That level comes in at 0.7850. The high for the year peaked at 0.7834.
What the consolidation/correction has done has bring the 100 week MA closer to the current price. The AUDUSD has not traded above the 100 week MA since April 2013. WIth the 100 week MA currently at the 0.7700, the price is within 100 pips of that MA level. On a stronger number later today, there may be the first test of the MA since 2013. A break above and traders will be looking for higher levels.
On the downside from the same chart, the pair has broken above trend line resistance at 0.7581 this week. If the number in the new day should disappoint, that level will be in play with a break below likely triggering stops. Other targets on the weekly chart includes the lower trend line on the weekly chart. That level comes in at 0.7405.
Drilling down to the hourly chart, if I were to define the channel higher (I ignore the spike low from unemployment day last week), the lower trend line currently comes in at 0.7585. That trend line will be higher at the time of the release, but move below and it is more bearish. The 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green lines) come in at 0.7565 and 0.7529 respectively. The 50% of the move up from last weeks low is at 0.7532. That is very near the 200 hour MAs area (at 0.7529). So earmark the 0.7529 -32 area as a key level to get to and through on a weaker number. The 100 day MA comes in at 0.7465. Last week the price fell below the 100 day MA for a 1/2 a day (on July 6th),moved to 0.7407. That low corresponds with the trend line on the weekly chart.
Those are the major levels the market will be eyeing and why. If the number comes out materially stronger or weaker than expectations look for the market to target the levels in the appropriate direction.