100 and 200 hour MA eyed.
The AUDUSD moved above and below the 200 week MA last week (at 0.8006 last week. It is at 0.8000 this week).
That was the first look above the 200 week MA since May 2013. Significant MA. The pair could not sustain the momentum and price fell back below the key MA. On Friday, the high for the day moved right up to that MA line and stalled. Sellers are leaning against the key MA level. I am not surprised.
What now? Is it clear sailing for the sellers?
Well looking at the hourly chart I would not get to excited just yet. Although sellers against the 200 week MA are going ok - we currently trade near the low for the day at 0.7961 - there are some key downside hurdles that will make shorts more comfortable.
More specifically, below are the downside hurdles to get to, and through:
- The 100 hour MA comes in at 0.79662. The price is below that level as I type but not running yet.
- The 200 hour MA comes in at 0.79483.
- A support floor comes in at 0.79019 and
- Double bottom and 38.2% retracement at 0.78767 area.
The last 9 plus days has traded above those levels most of the time. They need to be broken to get more selling pressure. The 200 hour MA was broken for a few hourly bars on July 26th, but the 0.7876 low from July 21 (double bottom), stalled the fall.
So I like the short below the key 200 week MA at 0.8000 but the lower support targets could stall a further fall.
Short have some work in progress in the AUDUSD.