Held near 50% yesterday
The USDJPY held near the 50% retracement of the 2017 trading range yesterday. That was bullish and the pair has trended higher in trading today. Stocks in Europe are up nicely with the Dax up 1.8% (that,s a big move). Nikkei continues to push higher too.
US stocks are opening higher with the S&P up 0.38% and the Nasdaq up 0.42%. US yields are mostly higher but the yield curve is getting flatter with the 2 year up 2 bp, while the 30 year is down -1 bp. The FOMC is later today and with better data, the expectations are the Fed could be more hawkish. A December hike is expected (greater than 84% probability).
Technically, the pair is approaching a key ceiling area between 114.367 and 114.49. In May 2017 the high came in at 114.367. In July the high reached 114.49 and failed. In October the high peaked at 114.443. The high just reached 114.27 as traders push for that peak/ceiling.
Needless to say a break above should solicit more buying (the ceiling becomes the floor).
Drilling to the 5-minute chart, the high from yesterday, was support on the one dip today. Also the 200 bar MA on the 5-minute chart stalled the one decent correction today.
The pair moved above the 100 bar MA and based against that line (bullish). The price momentum has taken the price higher since that basing.
Risk will be the 38.2-50% of the last trend move higher intraday. That comes in at 114.00-114.06. The 100 bar MA is moving up toward that area too. If we make new high, adjust the risk higher (move the fibos).
Bulls are in control. KEY ceiling ahead. Need to get above that level to push higher.
