Trades near the low for the day
The EURUSD is mired in an up and down, consolidative, non-trend like trading day so far. The range is only 40 pips. The 22 day average is 76 pips (about a month of trading). The high price extended up toward a swing area between 1.21719 and 1.2177. The high price reached just above that area at 1.21784, but quickly reversed.
On the downside, the Asian session low reached 1.21380. That was just above the low from Friday's trade at 1.21315. A move below would have traders targeting other swing lows going back to December 15 and December 16 at 1.2124 and 1.21198. A break of that area, should open the door for further selling with the next target area near 1.20948 to 1.2100.
On the topside now, getting back above the swing lows from December 21 and December 22 at 1.21514 and 1.21591 would have traders looking back toward the highs for the day.
Overall, the correction off of the low of the recent trend move lower, could not reach the 38.2% retracement target at 1.21898. That keeps the sellers more in control as buyers are not exactly taking back control or anxious to move higher.
However, the pair is also a long way from the falling 100 hour MA (blue line up at 1.22294), which is indicative of the strong move lower seen in the pair since the highs on January 6/7. That gap, may also give sellers some "cause for pause", and allow for a little "catch-up" from oversold conditions. Having said, that trends can be fast and directional, and go farther than traders expect. As a result, listen to the price action. A new low - and crack below the low yesterday and the 1.21198 afterwards - should solicit more selling.
PS The EURGBP may be in play for the EURUSD as well. That pair is down sharply mainly on the rise in the GBPUSD. However, it is testing the December 31 low at 0.89313. The low today reached 0.8932. A break below could see push the EURUSD lower. Conversely, holding the line and bouncing could help to support the EURUSD as well. Key level for that pair.
