EUR/USD buyers failed to hold a break above the 100-day moving average
Sellers won out in the battle yesterday as they defended a daily close above the 100-day MA (red line). That means that they stay in control of the pair in the bigger picture as the dollar continues to find its footing on the week.
Price action overnight was more complicated as EUR/USD rose to just above 1.1300 after ADP employment data disappointed but then reversed its gains after following stronger ISM non-manufacturing data, falling to 1.1220-30 levels.
And that's where price is still sitting at as we begin the session here. So, what's there to look out for today?
The key risk event for the euro will be the ECB monetary policy meeting decision and Draghi's press conference. I believe we won't be offered much of anything new but you can never really rule out anything when it comes to central banks, especially when the global economic environment is shaky and the Fed also starting to err towards cutting rates.
From a technical perspective though, the 100-day MA @ 1.1274 will be the key level in any upside move with offers then seen at 1.1300 before swing region resistance around 1.1324 comes into play.
Meanwhile, the 100-hour MA @ 1.1219 is a key area to watch in the near-term as a fall below that will see the near-term bias turn more neutral ahead of light bids around 1.1200 and the 200-hour MA @ 1.1191. Those will be notable levels to watch out for in terms of a downside move later today.
But prior to the ECB meeting, it is likely we'll remain a bit more rangebound as markets continue to search for fresh direction with large expiries at 1.1200 and 1.1220 also playing a role in keeping price action anchored.
