What would tilt the bias more to the downside (or upside) today
The EURUSD fell sharply for two successive days.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the 1st leg lower took the price from 1.11749 to 1.1112. The correction took the price between the 38.2% retracement and 50% retracement of that trend leg lower (between 1.1136 and 1.11435).
The 2nd leg lower for the week occurred yesterday with the price falling from a high of 1.11397 to a low fo 1.10626. That move took the price below the lows from October at the 1.1072-731 area but selling could not be sustained.
Today, the price started to make higher highs at the lows and then trade more comfortably above those October low levels (at 1.1073 area).
The correction higher, however, has moved up to the 38.2% retracement of the 2nd leg lower and stalled. Stay below that 38.2% retracement (and really up to the 50% at 1.1101) keeps the sellers more in control. If you think about it, the buyers could only get the price up to the 38.2% retracement of the last leg lower. That is not all that great.
So sellers remain more in control from the hourly perspective.
Drilling to the 5 minutes chart below, the pair has seen some intraday corrections, but the last move lower did stall right at the 200 bar moving average on the 5 minutes chart (green line). We are currently testing the 100 bar moving average at 1.10838. A move below it and then the 200 bar moving average (at 1.10785), should be more bearish (and give the sellers more confidence/scare the dip buyers).
PS the EURUSD was helped today by much better factory orders from Germany and ok services PMI data out of Europe
