Trade near highs for the week
Like the USDJPY (but in reverse), the EURUSD remains above its 100 hour MA (since Feb 21). The price high today reached 1.1200. The highs for the week was on Tuesday 1.12128 (quickly) and then at 1.11950 (on the same day). So the high price trade between those extremes for the week. We currently trade at 1.1189.
Technically today, the price did dipped below a trend line (see red numbered circles) but momentum to the downside could not be increased. The price also stayed above its 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.11182 and moving higher). If the price is to move lower, breaks below the rising trend line and 100 hour moving average would be needed to give the sellers more control. Absent that, and the buyers are still in full control.
Also of importance for the bias is that the price remains above its 200 day moving average. On Tuesday and again yesterday, buyers lined up against that keep moving average. It currently comes in at 1.10963. Like the 100 hour moving average, if the sellers are to take more control, moving below that 200 day moving average would be needed.
Right now it seems the pair is taking clues from the room the Fed has to cut rates and the lack of room that the ECB has to cut rates (interest rate differentials). The storyline can change if investors start to shun European assets, but for now, the flow funds seems to be out of the US and back home into Europe.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the price has been trading above and below a topside trend line over the last few days. We are currently back above that trend line at 1.1181 (but just barely). Nevertheless if the price can keep the price above that level, we could see further momentum. Other targets on the topside include the high from December 31 at 1.12387 and the swing high from August 2019 at 1.1248.
