Corrects to the 38.2% of the range since October 21
The EURUSD spent nearly two days below it's 100 day MA at 1.16599. The price fell below on Friday during the NY morning session. It lasted below that MA line all day yesterday. Finally at around 3 AM ET/8 AM GMT, the price moved above the 100 day MA and has trended above it's 100 hour MA at 1.16816 and a swing area in the 1.1687 to 1.1693.
The 100 hour MA is the close risk for traders now. If the price moves below the level and then the 100 day MA, the sellers will be firmly in control.
On the topside, the pair moved up to test the swing low from last Wednesday at 1.1717. The 38.2% of the move down from the October 21 high comes in at 1.17201. A move above would be the one of the minimum hurdles (the 100 hour MA is the first today), that is needed to switch the bias from bearish to bullish.
The next key target is up at the 200 hour MA at 1.17507. That is right where the 50% of the move down comes in and increases the areas importance.
Overall, the run higher today took the pair in a more neutral area before the election and the inklings of the winner. It makes sense to do that give the uncertainty and also give traders the ability to define risk and limit risk.
Can there be volatility and moves outside the bearish/bullish extremes?
Sure, but I would not be surprised if the price hung between the levels until that time "the market" decides the bias for the dollar (and the EUR for that matter). That may not come until election results and speculation off those results start coming in.
Nevertheless, it is nice to have a technical roadmap that will give traders some basis - from the price action from all traders around the world) - to the bias (bullish or bearish). The price and the technical tools applied to that price do help to tell the story of what "the market" is thinking.
PS Looking at the daily chart, the low from September came in at 1.16109. The low yesterday reached 1.1621 (within 10 pips). Move below those levels on more bearish going foward, opens up the downside more. Be aware of the level.
