"Euro volatility creates uncertainty". "Ample degree of stimulus needed to boost inflation" "Downside risk relate to FX markets"
The initial comments from Draghi, have not derailed the EURUSD strength despite "risk from FX". As a result, the buyers have taken the price to new session highs.
The EURUSD is back up - and moving through - a topside trend line on the daily chart at 1.2463. The price trading at the highs. That is a risk level now....
MORE....The next hurdle comes on the hourly chart at the 1.2486 on the hourly chart. That is a trend line connecting the recent highs. Whoops, we are breaking above that level as I type....(see pic below). That broken trend line will be a risk level now.
The move since the start of his speech has taken the EURUSD up by about 100 pips. The high reached 1.2497. Maybe the 1.2500 natural resistance level will put a lid on the rally now, but on a break higher it could ignite more buying.
More on Risk.....Looking at the 5 minute chart below, note the action around the 1.2460 area. The level was the high from earlier today and on the race higher on the comments, it based and ran at that level (see red numbered circles). It is also the 38.2% of the move higher.
Because of that, I consider it the risk for longs who are looking for more upside (or dip buyers). Stay above... bullish. Move below... bearish.
SUMMARY.
- Trend line on the hourly at 1.2486
- Trend line on the daily at 1.2463
- The 38.2% of the move up from low (from Draghi talk) 1.2460.
- The high from earlier today. 1.2459.
Other upside targets:
- 1.25688. High from Dec 16, 2014
- 1.2597 - 61.8% of the move down from the May 2014 high