Stay above the 200 day MA keeps the buyers more in control
The EURUSD has moved lower in trading today with the pair stepping to new lows on the report that Italy was to close all schools and universities until mid month. That decision the since been postponed and we are seeing a bounce up to 1.1130 area.
The fall today took the price toward support targets defined by:
- a swing area in the 1.1108 to 1.1117 area, and below that the
- 200 day moving average at 1.10961. That is also near the swing high from January 31 and February 3 (at 1.10948).
If the price moved back below the 200 day moving average, I would expect more downside momentum.
Drilling to the 5 minute chart, the pair has been marching lower in the London session. The pair is trading in a channel with the topside trend line at 1.1132 (and moving lower). If the sellers are to remain in control, the 1.11387 to 1.11504 will be eyed for sellers intraday. That encompasses the 38.2% to the falling 100 bar MA. The 50% retracement at 1.11479 is also in that area.
Overall, the buyers showed up near support and getting below the 200 day MA is still a major hurdle for the sellers today. However, sellers have made a play and that gives buyers some work to do to turn the intraday bias back to the upside.
If you like the dips, don't go below the 200 day MA and climb through the channel trend line at 1.1132 an the other intraday levels including the falling 100 bar MA on at 1.1150.
Sellers want to see the intraday corrective levels holding resistance.
