Breaks below 1.1200.
The earlier post today spoke to the 1.1200 level as a level to get below for the bears/sellers. The high today stalled at the 50% of the move down from the June 6th high at 1.12248. The 1.1200 level was a floor intraday (and going back to yesterday as well - see red circles in the chart below).
Now that the sellers are making a play and showing their hand, it is time to take the pair lower.
The low for the day at 1.11849 is the obvious nest target. However remember, the pair only has a 40 pip trading range. SO if making a "break for it", it should extend the range too.
A key support target comes in at 1.11609-1.1171. That is where there have been another area (on the hourly chart) where there are a lot of swing levels (See red circles in the chart below). If there is a run lower, I would expect buyers to lean against that level on a test (with stops below).
What happens if the lows can not be taken out at 1.11849?
IF the price moves back above the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and 50% of the day's trading range, that would signal to me, that the sellers are really not in love with this move. I start to get concerned about shorts in that area.
There are times when a break should see momentum. This is one of those intraday breaks that either it works or it does not. There is always another trade.