EUR/USD keeps above its 100-hour moving average in trading today
The market is keeping more quiet with the dollar a touch weaker on the day so far. But the moves aren't stretching the boundaries as we saw yesterday - except for cable - with EUR/USD having retraced towards 1.1800 overnight after a test of 1.1900.
Sellers defended the topside level before shoving the pair down back towards its 100-hour MA (red line), where buyers are keeping up a defense for now.
Stay above that and the near-term bias remains more bullish. Break below that and preferably below the 1.1800 level, the near-term bias turns more neutral instead.
As things stand, buyers have more work to do in order to crack above the 1.1900 level. Only a firm break/close above that will there be further momentum to potentially test 1.2000.
But amid a tricky virus backdrop across Europe and the ECB set to ease further next month, while also possibly verbally intervening if needed, euro gains may be a little hard to come by unless the dollar is seen weakening materially.
Amid the longer-term view that the dollar is likely to weaken further on the improving risk backdrop over time and prolonged Fed easing, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD should be higher but not without its short-term fluctuations.
The 1.1600 to 1.1900 range is still intact and remains in play for now.
So, until we get past that and 1.2000 (although this may be a more gradual process), buyers will have to be more patient and play the current levels by reading the tea leaves.
In the bigger picture of things:
The pair is very much contesting with the 100-month MA (red line), seen @ 1.1850 currently, so that will be a key technical level to keep an eye out for over the coming weeks.
