EUR/USD touched a low of 1.1938 on the day
There are two key levels to watch out for in the pair currently. The first is on the hourly chart and that is the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1983. The high today fell shy of that, which was at 1.1978. As long as price remains below the 100-hour MA, the near-term bias stays with the bears.
The pair broke the short-term downwards trendline earlier today, but momentum stalled near the 100-hour MA before falling back down.
The second key level to look out for is on the daily chart, which is the 200-day MA (blue line) @ 1.2018. Even if the pair breaks the 100-hour MA above, getting above the 200-day MA is the real key for buyers. The pair hasn't broken below said level since April last year, so the break here is not only a technical one but a psychological one.
As long as price stays below it, sentiment in EUR/USD will remain bearish still. If that is the case, the next downside level to watch out for will be the 9 January low @ 1.1916. Friday's close failed to break that level although the pair did manage to touch a low of 1.1911.
That will be the next support level to eye a daily close below if the downtrend still has further to go. For upside today, look out for large expiries looming at the 1.2000 level.
