Trades above and below the 200 day MA for the 3rd day in a row
The 200 day MA comes in at 1.11504. The price moved above that level on Friday (in sympathy with the GBPUSD spike higher) but closed well below the level.
Yesterday, the price moved above it again but closed below the level again (at 1.11429).
Today, the price moved up to a high of 1.11741, but rotated back down. The 1.11744 to 1.1186 is a swing area that needs to be broken on the topside (and stay broken) if the price is to extend higher. The high price today, stalled against the low of that swing area at 1.11744.
What now?
For the bulls, the price needs to get back above, and stay above the 200 day MA (let's start with a close today above the level). Failure to do that and sellers would have a little more control.
Having said that, drilling to the hourly chart below, helping the upside today was a failure on the dip below the trend line and 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 1.11376) on the run to the lows today during the Asian/early European session. That MA is also where the 38.2% retracement is found. That failure can swing to a bullish bias if the price can stay above.
The current dip in the New York session, has so far, been able to stay above that trend line and MA level. If the price can hold, we could see more intraday buying (which would increase the chance for a close above the 200 day MA).
Move below each of those support levels, however, and I would expect more selling as buyers give up on the upside.
Summary: although the price cannot stay above its 200 day moving average at 1.11504, there is some hope from the hourly chart if the price can stay above a trendline at 1.1142 and the 100 hour moving average at 1.11376. The battle is on between the buyers and sellers for control.
