On the downside, get below the 1.1915 and 1.1876 levels
Last week, the EURUSD moved below the 200 day MA for the first time since April 2017 (over a year ago). The MA currently comes in at 1.20151.
The price closed below the level on Tuesday, May 1 and closed below for the rest of the week. On Wednesday, there was a brief move above the line, but that test failed.
The low on Friday extended to 1.19096, just below the low for 2018 from January at 1.1915. The pair rallied in the NY afternoon and closed at 1.1959. The US employment number on Friday was weaker than expectations.
On the daily chart technically, the 200 day MA remains a key level to stay below if the bears are to remain in control. A move above would give sellers a reason to cover on the failed break.
On the downside, getting below the 1.1915 (and now the new low for the year at 1.1910 area) would look toward the swing level from back in 2010 at 1.1876. A move below that level will have traders focused on the 1.17133 level. That is the 38.2% of the move up from the December 2016 low and near the swing low going back to December 12, 2017 (at 1.1717).
Drilling to the hourly chart below, you can see that the price decline below the 1.1915 2018 low on Friday was short lived. The other notable low for the week, was on Wednesday, when the low stalled at the lower trend line and had a modest bounce back toward the 200 day MA. There were some profit taking buying.
Nevertheless, the rallies off the lows were very modest.
On Friday, the price rally, stalled near a topside trend line (see chart below). That trend line comes in at 1.1977 currently (and moving lower). The 100 hour MA (blue line) is also catching up to the price at 1.1995 (and moving lower). Those levels are interim targets on a corrective move higher ahead of the all important 200 day MA at 1.20151. If buyers start to take those levels out, there could be some muddying of the bearish waters.
Until then, however, the sellers remain in control with 1.1915, 1.1876 and 1.1713 the next key downside targets for the pair.