Yield spread not helping
The US 10 year yield is up about 3.9 bps at 2.437%. The German 10 year is up 1.3 bps and stands at -0.015%. That in and of itself is enough to keep the EURUSD under wraps. It hard to buy a currency when the yield spread is so wide and the benchmark countries yields are below 0.0% (flight safety or not).
Technically, that story can change, but the clues from the chart today are not all supportive. Looking at the pair, the price has traded up and down but is currently trading at the session lows. At the high today, the pair could not extend back above a broken trend line, nor get above the high from yesterday's trading. Moreover, each of the highs over the last few days has fallen short of the 200 and 100 hour MAs above (green and blue lines at 1.1337 and 1.13436 respectively) and the 38.2% of the move down from last week's highs. That says to me, not much upside momentum/conviction.
The pair is trading to new session ows and looks toward the lows from last week as the next targets. Friday's low came in at 1.12727. Before that, watch the 1.1288 level. A break below those levels, and the hourly chart target will look toward the 1.1250 level
Looking at the daily chart, the 1.1262-69 area was home to swing lows from November and December 2018. Not the price waffled around the level in February and tumbled below in March on the way to the 2019 low at 1.11744 on March 7th.
