The 38.2% retracement is the ceiling (the 200 hour MA is also in play). The 61.8% retracement is the floor
The EURUSD has moved lower from yesterday's close. In the Asian session, the price moved back below the 38.2% retracement at 1.09043 and the 200 hour moving average (green line). Since then, the 30.2% retracement has provided upside resistance (helped by the slightly rising 200 hour moving average currently at 1.08984).
On the downside, the 61.8% retracement has been acting as support at 1.08521. Yesterday the low reached 1.08558. The low price today reached 1.08523 and bounced.
The EURUSD moved up to a post claims high of at 1.0900 natural resistance level and just above the 200 hour MA (at 1.08984) but has backed off. We currently trade at 1.0886.
The market is looking for a break outside the retracement derived range. If there is a break on the topside (above 1.0900-04 area), the 100 hour moving average at 1.09286 would be the next upside target. That moving average stalled the rise in the New York session yesterday.
On a move lower, the pair will look toward swing levels seen going back to April 2 through April 9 at 1.08404, 1.08293, and 1.08200 as the next targets.
