Yesterday saw a quick and rejected break above.
Recall from yesterday, the EURUSD extended above its 100 day moving average for the 1st time since May 1, but like on that day the price rejected the break quickly and moved back down.
Today the price has once again moved up to test that moving average. This time traders leaned just ahead of the moving average level at 1.09667. The high reached 1.0966 and reversed. We currently trade at 1.0956 after rotating to a low of 1.09487.
Although sellers are leaning (and that is always a good, low risk trade against a key technical level), the price has still advanced on the day after retesting a swing area in the 1.0920-26 area. The early Asian session low did get to 1.0917 in the early day minutes as traders jockeyed for position into the new trading day. The sellers had their shot - they failed.
While it is true that a low risk trade is to sell against the 100 day moving average, the buyers are still making a play toward breaking that level. A move above will likely have traders looking for confirmation through the high price from yesterday at 1.09755. With stops building on more momentum above that level.
On a break above 1.09755, the next target would be the mid April highs around 1.0988 level (see daily chart below), followed by the 200 day moving average up at 1.10129 and the high price from May 1 at 1.10181 has upside targets.
