The 200 hour MA stalled the rally on the headline news.
The EURUSD is trading back below the 200 day MA at 1.1139 and in the process tilted the bias more to the downside (green line in the chart below). The run lower has also dipped below a lower trend line at 1.11135. The trend line is also between a swing area dating back to April. That area comes in between 1.1100 and 1.11159. For the bears to take more control, getting below that area would be more bearish with the 100 day MA (blue line) at 1.10617.
Drilling to the hourly chart, the run higher early in the session, took the price to the 200 hour MA (green line), but was turned away. That level was a target that needed to get above and stay above if the bulls were to take control. The failure gave the sellers the risk level to lean against, and the price did stay below. Bearish. The ultimate move below the 200 day moving average (at 1.1139 - see green overlay line on the hourly chart below), was another bearish signal.
What now?
The selling has run into the support target at 1.1100 to 1.1115 (and the trend line) and bounced. We currently trade at 1.1122. That level is a close risk level with a swing high on Dec 20 and swing low from January 3 at the level. Get above and corrective moves would look toward the 200 day MA at 1.1139. That is the key risk/bias level for traders. Stay below, keeps the sellers in control. Move back above and the waters get more money from a technical perspective as a result of the failure once again.
