4-day decline took the pair down around 275 pips
The EURUSD has fallen over the last four days. The pair moved to a new cycle low (lowest level since November 24, 2020) today before rebounding higher. The decline over the last week has taken price down over 275 pips (high at 1.2112 and the low at 1.1835 today). The close yesterday came in at 1.18454. The current price is trading at 1.1886. The string of down days is in jeopardy.
Looking at the hourly chart above, the pair was able to extend above a downward sloping trendline early in the Asian session. That tilt turned sellers more into buyers. With the stocks moving higher, the dollar selling also help to support the pair and move the price higher.
The price has rebounded to a high today of 1.19152. That is still short of the high price seen in the early Asian session on Monday at 1.19317 which is the next target on further upside momentum. Other key targets on the topside include the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high from March 3 at 1.19411, and the falling 100 hour moving average of 1.19511.
If the buyers are to be taken more seriously, getting back above those levels are the minimum requirements to tilt the bias more in the favor of the buyers.
Drilling to the five minute chart below, the bullish clues started after the pair broke back above its 100 and 200 bar moving averages. After a final test of the moving averages toward the late Asian session, buyers trended the price action to the upside. The last few hours has seen the price dip back down toward a retest of its 100 bar moving average and 38.2% retracement of the days trading range near the 1.1885 area. The buyers and sellers are stating a small battle at the intraday support level. A move below would have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint of the day's range of 1.18751 and the rising 200 bar moving average of 1.18680.
In contrast, if the buyers are serious about today's move, we should see a bounce off this area.
