EUR/GBP inches up back towards the 0.88 handle on sterling weakness

EUR/GBP extends its bounce since testing the April 2018 support

EUR/GBP D1 01-02

The euro is getting some tailwind on the day on the back of EUR/GBP buying (pound selling) as the quid comes under pressure following the gloomy manufacturing PMI report earlier. As mentioned then, despite the fact that the manufacturing sector isn't as important to the UK economy as the services sector, it still contributes to a decent part of the economy and can't be ignored completely.

Currently, I would argue that the pound weakness has a bit to do with the gloomy economic outlook but it owes more to the fact that traders are growing less confident in recent days following the Brexit amendment votes.

Odds of a no-deal Brexit has increased slightly after the Cooper Amendment failed to pass in parliament and given that we're not any closer to heading towards a deal, it's now looking more and more likely to be a straight shootout between a second referendum (possibly allowing for a no Brexit outcome) and a no-deal Brexit option.

Given cable is also testing support/bids around 1.3050-60 currently, I can only see a further move lower in the pound in the event that traders are growing more worried about a no-deal Brexit again. At this stage, price action will have little to do with economic data already.

If you're looking for further weakness in the pound, just be aware of how traders are pricing in the odds of a no-deal Brexit now. I would argue that the odds are still relatively low, but if an extension to Article 50 looks unlikely to happen in the coming weeks, expect that rhetoric (even just the uncertainty of it) to put more pressure on the pound in due time.

Otherwise, it's hard to see a material weakness in the quid beyond the levels above given that there's still time and chances are the UK parliament will try and pull out all the stops to deny a no-deal Brexit.

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