Sellers stay in control.
The buyers had a shot today. That shot was the move above the 100 hour MA (blue line) currently at 0.8786. The pair traded above and below that line with 0.8800 as the next target, but could only get to a high at 0.8792. The MA at the time was at 0.8788. The current 100 hour MA is at 0.8785 (and moving lower).
The failure eventually turned buyers and sellers and the price started to move back toward session lows near the 0.8760 level. The low has reached to 0.8764 so far. Move below however, and there should be more downside probing. The low last Friday came in at 0.87378 and that certainly would be a target.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the pair in January waffled above and below a key swing area between 0.8860 and 0.88766. In February, the price started to move further away from that key swing area (see red numbered circles and yellow area). Last week, the price tested the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 trading range at 0.87467.
The pair currently trades below a topside trend line that cuts across at 0.8814 (and moving lower).
With the price trading between the trendline above and the retracement level below, traders will be focused on a break eventually. If the price does move higher, there will be strong resistance near the swing area.
On the downside, the next target comes between 0.8675 and 0.87017. That area was where swing lows going back to April and May bottomed the pair.
