AUD/JPY
The Aussie dollar has had a string of supportive data out this week. Inventories and company profits were good. Q1 GDP data was a beat , and previous readings revised upwards too. Copper is ripping upwards and Iron ore is heading above it's May's highs. The Trade balance out last night was a slight miss on the headline figure, but there was an upward revision in the March surplus to 1.730 bln from 1.527 bln. Now, I am still long AUD/NZD and I am holding my position, as I see no reason to close my position. So, I wanted to have a look at another pair today that may present opportunities. Now, they say great minds think alike, and Justin has already posted this chart to your attention. I think this is the most interesting chart too for now, given the strength in equities and the Nikkei currently up nearly 1% point. There is risk off sentiment in the market. AUD/JPY is especially good to play at the moment with the good data out of Australia recently too, as noted above.
If you look at the Monthly chart below you can see that price was supported off the 200 MA (red line) . Stochastics are turning to the upside. Technically more upside look promising.
Drilling down to the four hour chart price has retraced to the 38.2% fib on the last 4hr swing high. One way to play this could be going with a break of the daily highs. Either playing it for a short term pop, or a medium term play looking for more upside and using a wider stop. Alternatively, enter on a deeper pullback with stops underneath the 83.26 level on the 4 hour swing point.
Risks to the trade : Slide in equities and any risk off tone entering the market. Watch out for the usual trade war rhetoric and any news that spooks the market on that front.