GBP/USD hits a high of 1.2892 on the day
Up, down, all around. The pound has certainly been erratic all week long. You can pin the moves to election sentiment, technical moves or month-end flows (some mention of that today) but I reckon we will get more clarity after the YouGov MRP poll release later today.
For cable, price is now back above the 100-hour MA (red line) and is running into the near-term trendline resistance @ 1.2891. The 200-hour MA (blue line) and the 1.2900 handle rests nearby and will act as key resistance points for the pair in the hours ahead.
As mentioned earlier, US data will be the first key hurdle for the pair as it will affect the dollar side of the equation.
But looking out further, the YouGov MRP poll may yet be the one to give the pound a bit more of a steady footing this week.
The only reason why markets are fixated on that poll is because it "accurately" predicted the 2017 election. Although there are a lot of potential pitfalls in any opinion polls, this is the one that markets have chosen to pay attention to.
As such, be wary that it could have significant short-term implications in the pound in the run up to the 12 December polling day.
