How did seasonal trades fare in August.
I'm a bit late on this because it's been such a wild week but I wanted to check back on our four seasonal forex trades for August.
1. Cracks in cable
What we wrote: "August is the worst month for GBP/USD over the past 9 years"
What happened: Cable finished the month down 1.8%. It was a bit of a rocky ride with a squeeze to 1.58 but the pound ultimately plummeted.
2. Aussie, Aussie, Aussie
What we wrote: August is the worst month for AUD/USD
What happened: AUD/USD finished down 2.67%. We highlighted the risks from China and noted that August was also a tough month for the Shanghai Composite -- it finished Aug down 12.6%.
3. A crude time of year
What we wrote: On July 28, we warned of a late month bounce in crude and said it would be an opportunity to sell.
What happened: Crude rallied to $49.52 on July 29 and the dove to $37.75. But that wasn't the end of the story as and epic squeeze actually pushed crude 1.5% higher on the month.
4. AUD/JPY shorts
What we wrote: Overall best seasonal trade may be AUD/JPY shorts. The pair has averaged a 2.24% decline in the past 10 years with declines in 8 of 10 years.
What happened: AUD/JPY fell 429 pips in the month and as much as 829 pips. The yen was the top performer in the month while AUD was second last, beating only NZD.
