RBA meeting minutes from May meeting will be released in the new day
The AUDUSD gapped higher and corrected 38.2% of the move down from May 7th high at 0.6934 after the election results over the weekend. The next key events occur in the new day when:
Minutes of the May 2019 Monetary Policy Meeting
- 11.30 am Sydney time
- 0130GMT
To be closely followed by a speech from Philip Lowe, Governor
- Topic: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
- 12.15 pm Sydney time
- 0215GMT
All that helps to setup the June 4th where the probability of a cut is 55% currently.
Technically, as mentioned, the weekend price rise, took the price to the 38.2% of the move down from the May 7 high. That comes in at 0.6934. The high for the day reached 0.69335. There are a number of swing levels between 0.69322 and 0.69391 and above that, the 200 hour MA (green line comes in at 0.6944 (and moving lower). Those targets remain key levels to get above - and stay above - if the buyers are to take more control going forward. It would take more hawkish minutes and comments from Lowe to push the price above those levels.
If Lowe and the minutes are more dovish, expect the odds of a cut at the June meeting to rise and the AUDUSD feel more pressure. A move below the 100 hour MA (blue line) and back below the broken trend line at 0.6885 currently and moving lower (see chart), would be technical clues before heading toward the lows from Friday at 0.68643.
The AUD is the still the strongest currency of the day, but it will be tested from the minutes and the comments from Governor Lowe in the new day. Be aware.
