The key hurdle remains
The most-compelling chart in FX at the moment is AUD/USD.
The pair appeared to be in the midst of a major breakout on Thursday as the UK voted for Conservatives and a trade deal appeared to be large and substantial. The UK story hasn't changed but the reality of the US-China trade deal was more-limited than initial reports.
That's left the market unsure what to do next. AUD?USD rose above the 200-day moving average on Thursday but it's back below now and at 0.6886 compared to the 200-dma at 0.6910 today.
I think the market is still sorting out the deal but is also struggling to get a sense of how strong global growth will be in 2020. Equally important is fear about year-end liquidity and everything that comes with that. Ultimately, I think we get over the hurdle but there's no rush to buy now.
