Fake break?
The #1 chart I am watching at the moment is AUD/USD and the 200-day moving average. I see it as a great barometer for global growth and the broad USD trade.
The 200-dma broke late in 2019 for the first time in 23 months but the problem with the break was that it came at the absolute worst time of year -- a time of year that's plagued by false breakouts.
So is that what's happened here? I'm not sure. The Iran drama and Australian bush fires are skewing the signal.
Overall, however, I'm growing more skeptical. Still the Aussie is so beaten up that I can't help but thinking that we're seeing a 'gentle turn' (to use the RBA phrase). For now, I'm watching the December low of 0.6754 as support.
