Buyers will need to extend above the 200 day MA
The AUDUSD extended to the 200 day MA at 0.6892 after the mostly weaker US jobs report and found sellers against the MA level.
The price action saw the price move back below its 100 hour moving average at 0.68813, but the fall could only extend to 0.6876 before rebounding back higher.
For the day the AUDUSD is higher with the catalyst being shorter than expected retail sales (0.9% versus 0.4% estimate).
The trend since the peak on December 31 has been more to the downside as expectations of a RBA cut next month rose.
However the last 3 days has seen a strong base being formed at 0.6848 area (see red numbered circles at the lows). The data today helped to give buyers a fundamental reason to buy.
What next technically?
Needless to say, for longs - and dip buyers - getting ab him him him ove the 200 day moving average is next major hurdle. If the price can extend above that level, I would expect more probing to the upside with the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart and 38.2% retracements of the move down from the December 31 high at 0.69182 as the next key target . Above that is the falling 200 hour moving average at 0.69326.
If the buyers can't make the push watch the 0.6870 area. That is home to swing lows intraday and also the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart (see lower green line). Move below and a run back toward the floor at 0.68485 would be the target.
We currently trade between those two MA levels (the 200 day MA above and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart below). A break of either will give traders the next bias clues.
